Saturday, December 26, 2009

Rose Bowl preview

WARNING: If you thought my first look at the OSU-Oregon matchup was a downer, then by all means read no further. I'd love to tell you that when I look at this game it's all sunshine and daisies and skipping through lollipop fields singing "Happy Together." Unfortunately, I don't see those things.

Here is my recurring nightmare when I look at this game.
Ohio State's first drive - 3 and out. (Why break tradition?)
Oregon's first drive - The Ducks get some first downs, but ultimately the D holds and Oregon punts.
OSU drive #2 (Don't worry, I am not going to do a drive-by-drive preview of the game.) Brandon Saine gets 70 of 85 yards and caps the drive with a 55-yard TD run. Buckeyes 7, Ducks 0. (Unfortunately, Saine only gets 4 more carries the rest of the game.)
After a Ducks turnover, the Bucks play it conservatively and settle for a field goal. Buckeyes 10, Ducks 0.
NOTE: If it was sunshine and daisies you were looking for, you'll want to stop reading now.
The Buckeyes head in to the 2nd quarter with a 10-0 lead and the offense promptly takes the next 20 minutes of the game off while the Ducks offense most certainly does not. The Ducks build a lead during that period in which the Buckeyes offense forget a game is in progress. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, the Buckeyes offense realizes it had better do something. Only by that point it's too late to grind out a 1958-style victory against Oregon's potent offense. The defense does its level best, but in the end, it spends too much time on the field. (Yeah, we've seen that movie before.)

Now, I would like to indulge my fine sense of hubris and think that this somehow reaches the Buckeyes players. I would like to think that they'll use this as motivation to prove me wrong. I certainly hope that is the case. By all means, Buckeyes, prove me wrong.


neslagle said...

Hi Gary,
You have seen by comments but I will copy below. Your comments were good for 1 quarter but you blew the last 3 quarters! Tress will play it conservative until he can't but Bucks will prevail 24-17. My web site comments:

ROSE BOWL PREVIEW - OFFENSE (2nd number is national rank out of 120 teams)
Points per game 38-7 29-47th OSU+3
Yards per game 425-25 364-71 OSU +7
Passing yards 198-95 165-106 Org +9
Pass yds per att 7.1-65 7.2-62 OSU+.1
Rush yds per game 36- 6 199-19 OSU+13Rush yds per att 5.5- 7 4.7-21 Turnovers by off 24-52 22-40
Fumbles lost 14-100 8-27
Interception lost 10-21 14-65th

Points per game 24-52nd 12-5th Yds allowed per game 330-75th 262-5th
Pass yds allow game 203-35th 179-17Rush yds allow game 127-37th 83-5th
Turnovers taken game 2.0-40th 2.9-2nd
Penalties 6.3-64th 5.0-8
QB Comparisons
Eff. Rank Com Att % Yds TD Int Sack
J. Masoli
132.6 50 168 285 59 2066 15 5 9
T. Pryor
128.0 67 144 258 56 1828 16 10 18

Yds Rank Att Yds Avg TD's
J. Masoli
659 97 115 659 5.7 12
T. Pryor
707 86 142 707 5.0 7

NOTE: NCAA stats don't add up. Rushing plus passing yards don't = total yards. Used NCAA # for Oregon (off by 9 yards) and mine for OSU (at least mine add up. NCAA had OSU at 180 passing yards per game, I had 165 .

OSU has slight edge in stats. Masoli slim edge over Pryor. PAC 10 overrated. They were favored by 2 and 3 points in first two bowl games and lost 44-20 and 37-27.

Oregon played 3 teams in the top 24 defensive teams. They lost to #16 Boise St 19-6, beat 19th ranked Utah 31-24 and lost to 24th Stanford 51-42. OSU beat 4th ranked defensive team, Penn State 24-7 and 11th ranked Iowa 27-24 in overtime.

In last 5 games OSU had 3 turnovers and took ball away from opponents 16 times. That was over the meat of schedule and after Tressel became more conservative. In last 5 games Oregon had 8 turnovers and only 4 take aways. Oregon fumbled 9 times and lost 5 of them. Not sure how many were Masoli. But Oregon likes to toss the ball around and I expect OSU to win turnover battle by 2

Slag Prediction: OSU 24 Oregon 17.

Above would be easier to read on my web site. Scroll down to after Michigan game:

Gone with the Schwind said...

Nelson, I truly hope I am wrong in my prediction. But like I said, it seems like we've seen this movie before. Hopefully the ending gets a re-write in this one.